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The Great Inflation of the 1970s and it's impact on the contemporary FED
Hornát, Filip ; Zukerstein, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Fiřtová, Magdalena (referee)
This paper deals with the period of the 1970s Great Inflation in the United States and its impact on the present Federal Reserve System. The seventies after the oil shock were in the United States a period of the so-called stagflation, a mix of high inflation, high unemployment and economic stagnation, or recession. The role of the Fed in this era is discussed. The main thesis of this paper is that the Fed during the Great Inflation has changed markedly, with the basic goals and approaches remaining at the Fed till nowadays. An analysis of the period is made. The author concludes that the period of the Great Inflation really had a major impact on the transformation of the Fed, which more closely resembles its present form than in the post-war era.
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Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Automobile Stock Prices, An Impulse Response Analysis
Malárik, Lukáš ; Jánský, Ivo (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
The goal of this master thesis is to analyze impact of shocks in oil prices to automobile industry stock prices and returns. We decompose oil price shocks on oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks and assess their individual impacts on these stock prices/returns. This is done using the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology which allows us to compute impulse responses, that is the reaction paths on the individual shocks. In addition to linear VARs we also employ threshold VAR models in order to capture nonlinearities in impulse responses and besides the aggregate automobile stock price index we compute these nonlinear impulse responses also for some selected individual car producers. We think that this analysis have two different uses. First, it can be beneficial to stock market investors. Second, it can be used by policymakers in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which are relatively heavily dependent on automotive industry. 1
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Vliv ropných šoků na ekonomiky USA a Venezuely od 70. let do současnosti
Pavlíček, Vojtěch ; Pikhart, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Strejček, Ivo (referee)
This paper attempts to define the impact of the oil price shocks on the economy. In the theory paper examines the general impact of the changes in the oil prices on the economy and the possibility of the central bank to respond to these changes, which proves to be quite difficult due to the time lag in the effectiveness of monetary policy. The practical part includes, inter alia, the development of the oil shocks of the 70s, with a focus on the latest crisis of 2014 the economy of the United States and Venezuela. In the US case is detected dual impact. Despite the negative impact on the individual segments of the economy, however, it can be argued that the low price of oil for the US is positive stimulus. On the contrary, the Venezuelan economy is experiencing within the low prices as export economy clearly negative shock, which uncovered nonfunctional economic system.
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The Cause of the economic recessions of the 1970s in the U.S.: Oil shocks, or monetary policy?
Hornát, Filip ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This paper examines the cause of the U.S. economic downturn of the 1970s, which is still widely discussed by economists. In principle, the previous research has led to two possible explanations: an incorrect monetary policy of the Federal reserve and oil shocks. First, the historical context of the oil shocks and the Feds conduct of monetary policy are outlined. Next, arguments of the authors advocating each explanation are presented. An empirical VAR model is estimated for the period 1960-2014 and then for single periods. Based on these estimates, it is evident that the impact of monetary policy and oil shocks has been changing over the observed period. The author comes to a conclusion that the first oil shock could have caused the subsequent economic downturn. However, monetary policy seems to have caused the downturns after the second oil shock.
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